By Angharad Davies
Journalists and politicians alike have gone into hyperbolic overload when it comes to describing the change that’s about to happen at the upcoming 2026 Senedd election. My bingo card includes “seismic shift”, “transformational”, “most consequential”, “new era”, “settlement-breaking”, “earthquake”, and the somewhat gentler “upset the applecart.”
The times, they are a changing.
The Senedd is expanding from 60 to 96 Members under a new proportional electoral system, transforming political dynamics. Polling has been fast and furious, presenting us with different scenarios about what a future Senedd might look like. Whatever the nuanced outcomes of the different polls, a number of things have remained steadfast: There is a significant shift away from Labour. Plaid and Reform UK are neck and neck and out in front. And the Greens are having their best Welsh election ever.
It is also the case – shown in every single poll – that support for ‘progressive parties’ in Wales (Plaid, Labour, the Greens and the Lib Dems) by far outweighs the support for the right-wing bloc (Reform UK and the Conservatives) by around 2-1. Significant, because this makes a Reform led government highly unlikely.
Anyway, I’m not going to dwell on the polls, because readers of this newsletter are ‘all over it’, and as every single politician who is challenged on their party’s poor poll rating would say – “the only poll that matters is the one on election day.”
Suffice it to say – this election is big. And the publication of the party manifestos confirmed that for the first time in the history of devolution, the 2026 Senedd Election presents stark divergences in visions for the future of Wales.
Renewable energy and climate change
And those stark divergences are very present in manifesto commitments on climate change and net zero. Reform doesn’t believe in man-made climate change and will scrap Wales’s net zero targets, ban new onshore wind and solar farms (a view shared by the Welsh Conservatives, incidentally), and scale back on climate related reporting.
Meanwhile, Plaid is championing the cause of net zero, hoping to find a ‘practical pathway’ there by 2040. Rhun ap Iorwerth’s party will develop a national energy strategy, are committed to the Renewable Sector Deal, and are so supportive of Trydan Gwyrdd Cymru – birthed by the Welsh Labour government as the state owned developer, long before Great British Energy was even a twinkle in Ed Miliband’s eye – that they’ll expand its remit to include community energy, too.
Welsh Labour, meanwhile – in power for 27 years, cough cough – want (yet another) new renewable energy strategy, while working towards the goal of an ‘energy independent Wales’; and they’ll set up a standalone energy department within government to do this.
The Greens, as you might expect, are the boldest of all. They are calling for a target of at least 17 GW of renewable generation, of which they reckon 5 GW could be solar energy.
Bless the Lib Dems – and yes, that is meant to sound patronising – they muttered something in their manifesto about ‘bold action’ and wagging a finger at the UK government on zonal electricity pricing.
Pylons
Who would ever have thought that electricity pylons would become a hotly debated election issue? While it might not be the first thing on voters’ lips as they answer the door to party canvassers (except in Carmarthenshire, of course), the topic has ‘arrived’ in the party manifestos. If you are not familiar with the ‘pylon’ issue, there isn’t room in this article to do it justice. Suffice it to say, that there are some people who really (and I mean, REALLY) don’t care for them. And some of these people are in the Plaid Cymru heartland of Carmarthenshire.
And of all the parties, it is Plaid which has got itself tied up in knots on this issue. I understand that the treatment of pylons within the Plaid manifesto was one of the most carefully considered sections. In the event, this ‘careful consideration’ translates in the manifesto as a prohibition on the use of large steel lattice pylons up 132 kV, a suggestion that wooden poles will do the job, and a commitment to a clear presumption in favour of undergrounding.
By contrast, Labour – smartly and deliberately, in my opinion – don’t mention pylons.
Will Plaid come to wish they, too, had taken a more ‘don’t mention the war’ approach to pylons in their manifesto? Only time will tell.
This is an interesting debate. I have heard Anthony Slaughter, leader of the Greens, speak with honesty and clarity on this matter. In his view (and I am paraphrasing, not directly quoting, with apologies, Mr Slaughter), there are ‘bad actors stoking the pylon debate’ and deliberately whipping up fear in communities across mid and west Wales where the anti-pylon signs are prevalent. I’ve heard Huw Irranca Davies from Labour, agree with this sentiment.
Anthony Slaughter goes on to say that political leaders must be honest in this regard and is of the view that to meet our climate targets, we are going to need pylons. For its part, the party’s manifesto refers to carefully planning pylon infrastructure and grid upgrades to avoid damage to ecosystems and landscapes.
Both Reform UK and the Welsh Conservatives adopt a preference for undergrounding of cables.
Community benefits and local ownership
There is much more to compare the parties on when it comes to energy and climate change. But finally, for this article, I want to turn to the treatment in the manifestos of community benefits and local ownership of energy. Reference to these topics is absent from the Reform UK, Conservatives and Liberal Democrat manifestos. By contrast, Plaid, Labour and the Greens have very definitely got views, and commitments galore.
Plaid’s pledge is a little convoluted, and the party calls for “a minimum community ownership stake of between 15 and 25%, equivalent local-benefit model, Wealth Fund payment, or corresponding means of capturing community benefits.” There has been much head scratching about this in the renewables industry. While most understand the sentiment behind it, ownership structures on what are, after all, very large and complex projects, is fraught.
The same sentiment, albeit expressed differently, was evident from Labour and the Greens; with Labour talking about ‘mandating’ renewable energy projects to benefit their community, and the Greens pledging to introduce Community Right to Buy.
Both Plaid and the Greens also want business rates from renewables projects to be retained by the host local authority, which I reckon might not go down too well with other local authorities who contribute large sums of business rates to the Welsh Treasury (Cardiff, Swansea, Wrexham) but by dint of geography and population, don’t have large scale energy projects that might provide a financial windfall, should this policy ever come to pass.
And so there we have it
Who has your vote?
Plaid Cymru, promising “new leadership” and an end to “a cycle of managed decline” under Labour. A party that positions itself as a “ready-to-go administration” which will prioritise an economy based on Welsh ownership and “community wealth building” delivered via a new National Development Agency and a Wales Wealth Fund.
Reform UK, maybe, which offers a “disruptive alternative” promising a “fundamental reset” rooted in “common sense”, characterised by aggressive tax cuts and the abolition of net zero targets, which they claim “blight” economic growth.
Or perhaps you’ll be voting Labour, which positions itself as the “party of devolution” and the sole provider of “stable governance” in an era of political instability. In government for 27 years, Labour talks of a “new chapter” for Wales, and “fairness you can feel”, warning voters that a different bunch might scrap the benefits we now rely on, such as free prescriptions, free bus travel for the over 60’s and free school meals.
You may be one of a growing number about to put your ‘X’ in the Green’s box, calling for “systemic change” and “bold transformation”, arguing that “tinkering” will not solve the overlapping crises of climate change and inequality. Their strategy is defined by “climate responsibility” and a move away from “extractive” economic models.
Are you tempted by the Welsh Conservatives, which say they offer a “serious, credible alternative” focused on “fixing Wales”? The party’s strategy is built on economic competitiveness, tax cutting and unionism, arguing that successive administrations in Cardiff Bay have been “greedy for powers” while failing to deliver on basic public services like health and education.
Or you might be willing to give the Liberal Democrats a roll of the dice, with their defiant pledge to “stop independence”, protect the NHS, support our high streets, and the only party to say they will “temporarily” raise the Welsh Rate of Income Tax by 1p to fund critical investment in social care.
Please make sure you vote. Our democracy matters, now more than ever, and in this election, above all others – your vote matters even more.