The national UK picture
Keir Starmer and Labour have won a landslide victory at the general election in what was a historic night for the party. Labour gained 211 seats taking their Commons total to 412. Starmer will today form a government and become the new Prime Minister. Swathes of red wall seats returned to Labour and new gains were made in seats previously considered safe for the Conservatives.
After 14 years, the Conservatives have been banished from office in a historic defeat which sees the party fall to just 121 MPs a loss of 251 seats. The Labour victory saw a number of defeats for high-profile Tories, including Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt, Education Secretary Gillian Keegan, former Cabinet Jacob Rees-Mogg, and one of the three PMs from the last Parliament Liz Truss.
The Liberal Democrats had a good night, gaining 64 seats and taking their total MP tally to 72. They replace the SNP as the third largest party in Westminster meaning that the party is now entitled to air-time during Prime Minister’s Question Time and guaranteed representation on key commons committees.
Reform UK enter Parliament for the first time with 5 seats, including Clacton, which Nigel Farage contested. The Green Party also return 4 MPs.
Labour: 412 (+211)
Conservatives: 121 (-251)
Liberal Democrats: 72 (+64)
SNP: 9 (-39)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (+2)
Green Party: 4 (+3)
Reform UK: 5 (+5)
Labour
In Wales, Labour has substantially increased its number of MPs and dominated the contest across the country, winning 27 of the 32 seats being contested. This follows boundary changes which reduced the number of seats in Wales from 40 to 32. The party re-captured the seats it lost to the Conservatives in 2019 and made gains beyond that. The victory in Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr is particularly remarkable; before this election Montgomeryshire was the last remaining part of Wales which had never been represented by a Labour MP. Craig Williams, the former Conservative MP here, did himself no favours by getting embroiled in a gambling controversy about the date of the general election. Labour will be a little disappointed about losing out to Plaid Cymru in Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin, given the significant campaign resource they allocated to those seats.
Despite the great success in terms of seats, there are some warning signs for Labour, whose vote share in Wales fell. Former First Minister Mark Drakeford told BBC Wales that Labour would need to “get under the bonnet to look at this election result”. This only adds pressure on Vaughan Gething and supports the view of some in Welsh Labour who believe a swift change is required to prevent a collapse at the 2026 Senedd election when a more proportional electoral system will take effect. Whilst it remains unclear how Vaughan Gething would pass a budget in the Senedd – Labour is the largest party but short of a majority. The First Minister is reportedly preparing for a ‘moment of challenge’ from within his own party now that the election is over.
Welsh Labour also face a new working relationship with a Labour government in Westminster. The party has promised that intergovernmental relations will be strong, however this will certainly be stress tested over the coming weeks and months by already apparent dividing lines, particularly on funding and the devolution of powers.
Conservatives
The Conservatives had a disastrous night in Wales, losing every single one of its seats for the first time since 2005. Notably, Welsh Secretary David TC Davies lost his Monmouthshire seat, along with former Welsh Secretaries Stephen Crabb, Alun Cairns and Simon Hart, as well as Fay Jones, Wales Office Minister. As across the rest of the UK, many senior Tories have lost their places in Parliament, and a fight for the soul of the Conservative Party in Wales and beyond is already underway. Already, Conservative commentators and politicians are squabbling about the reasons for such a monumental defeat and about which direction the party should go in.
Welsh Conservative leader in the Senedd Andrew RT Davies was visibly angry in his response, criticising the decision to call an early election and blaming the “shenanigans in Westminster” over the last five years. The complete obliteration of Conservative MPs in Wales provides the opportunity for the Welsh Conservative Senedd group to play a leading role in steering the party’s future strategy in Wales. Already, younger MSs including Samuel Kurtz and Tom Giffard have indicated their desire to place a stronger emphasis on Welsh identity in the party’s approach. Ahead of the 2026 Senedd Election, perhaps this points to a new ‘clear blue water’ strategy being implemented, with a Senedd group of MSs which are more independently minded from their Westminster colleagues.
Plaid Cymru
It was an excellent night for Plaid Cymru, which secured the party’s greatest Westminster result in its history. Plaid held on to Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Ceredigion Preseli with increased shares of the vote, and won both of the party’s target seats: Ynys Môn and Caerfyrddin. The party’s overall increased vote share in Wales from 10% to 14.8% represents a great platform for the party to build on ahead of the 2026 Senedd election. Rhun ap Iorwerth and his party will feel that they can take advantage by offering an alternative voice for Wales now that Labour is in power at both ends of the M4. Plaid will be very chipper with this result and will hope it draws a line under a series of controversies, including criticism of the Party’s handling of bullying and harassment allegations.
Liberal Democrats
The Liberal Democrats will also be happy with the party’s performance in Wales, with David Chadwick ousting outgoing Wales Office minister Fay Jones in Brecon, Radnor and Cwm Tawe. Welsh Liberal Democrat Leader and their only Senedd Member Jane Dodds had previously represented the constituency after her success in the 2019 by-election but failed to retain it in the previous general election.
Reform UK
In his eighth attempt, Reform UK’s leader Nigel Farage was successful in becoming an MP, winning the seat of Clacton. Reform UK didn’t win any seats in Wales, but increased its vote share everywhere and came second in 13 Welsh seats, falling just 1,509 votes short in Llanelli. In terms of vote share, it even outperformed Plaid Cymru. The party will target the next Senedd election with a more proportional system in place for 2026.